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06/02/2014 10:03:11 AM · #1 |
3 days apart:
Flip 'n' Blend Abstract:
81 votes
6.2963
Flowers III:
81 votes
6.2963
In 203 challenges, I only have one other instance of duplicate scores, and they came 7 1/2 years apart.
Weird. |
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06/02/2014 10:25:22 AM · #2 |
Oh, I thought you were going to note that the first letters of the first three challenges spell out PIG. :)
Which of course, since the last of those three is for a man, Bear, this brings to mind the ManBearPig meme.
;)
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I don't think I've ever gotten two consecutive scores the same. The odds of that have to be astronomically low. |
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06/02/2014 10:28:32 AM · #3 |
stet
Message edited by author 2014-06-02 10:38:46. |
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06/02/2014 11:24:40 AM · #4 |
| Consecutive identical scores AND number of votes. Wow. |
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06/02/2014 11:30:17 AM · #5 |
Originally posted by Cory:
...I don't think I've ever gotten two consecutive scores the same. The odds of that have to be astronomically low. |
Low, but not as low as you might think. The probability of two consecutive images both getting 81 votes is perhaps 10% (number of votes doesn't vary too greatly). Given both getting 81 votes, the probability of both getting 510 total points is about 1.1%, assuming a standard deviation of 0.85 (it's actually 0.77 for one image, and 0.92 for the other). The probability of the second event, given the first, is therefore 0.1*0.011 = 0.0011, or about one in a thousand.
This calculation actually understates the probability by quite a bit. There are other combinations that would result in the same end score, for instance 108 votes with a point total of 680, or 135 votes with a point total of 850.
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06/02/2014 11:38:14 AM · #6 |
Originally posted by kirbic:
Originally posted by Cory:
...I don't think I've ever gotten two consecutive scores the same. The odds of that have to be astronomically low. |
Low, but not as low as you might think. The probability of two consecutive images both getting 81 votes is perhaps 10% (number of votes doesn't vary too greatly). Given both getting 81 votes, the probability of both getting 510 total points is about 1.1%, assuming a standard deviation of 0.85 (it's actually 0.77 for one image, and 0.92 for the other). The probability of the second event, given the first, is therefore 0.1*0.011 = 0.0011, or about one in a thousand.
This calculation actually understates the probability by quite a bit. There are other combinations that would result in the same end score, for instance 108 votes with a point total of 680, or 135 votes with a point total of 850. |
You should have put a "MATH AHEAD" warning on that. : - )
My eyes and brain just glazed over.
Message edited by author 2014-06-02 11:38:39. |
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06/02/2014 11:50:08 AM · #7 |
| Maybe he can explain the asymmetrical challenge. I thought I knew what it was until I read the description and then my eyes glazed over. |
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06/02/2014 12:15:14 PM · #8 |
Originally posted by kirbic:
Originally posted by Cory:
...I don't think I've ever gotten two consecutive scores the same. The odds of that have to be astronomically low. |
Low, but not as low as you might think. The probability of two consecutive images both getting 81 votes is perhaps 10% (number of votes doesn't vary too greatly). Given both getting 81 votes, the probability of both getting 510 total points is about 1.1%, assuming a standard deviation of 0.85 (it's actually 0.77 for one image, and 0.92 for the other). The probability of the second event, given the first, is therefore 0.1*0.011 = 0.0011, or about one in a thousand.
This calculation actually understates the probability by quite a bit. There are other combinations that would result in the same end score, for instance 108 votes with a point total of 680, or 135 votes with a point total of 850. |
I love this kind of solutions and I believe you when you say there's a chance of one in a thousand. But is the fact it occured to one person part of this equation? Or does it not matter? |
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06/02/2014 12:18:36 PM · #9 |
| And then you factor in that one was Expert editing and the other Minimal. How does THAT affect your equation? |
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06/02/2014 12:58:40 PM · #10 |
Originally posted by Kroburg:
Originally posted by kirbic:
Originally posted by Cory:
...I don't think I've ever gotten two consecutive scores the same. The odds of that have to be astronomically low. |
Low, but not as low as you might think. The probability of two consecutive images both getting 81 votes is perhaps 10% (number of votes doesn't vary too greatly). Given both getting 81 votes, the probability of both getting 510 total points is about 1.1%, assuming a standard deviation of 0.85 (it's actually 0.77 for one image, and 0.92 for the other). The probability of the second event, given the first, is therefore 0.1*0.011 = 0.0011, or about one in a thousand.
This calculation actually understates the probability by quite a bit. There are other combinations that would result in the same end score, for instance 108 votes with a point total of 680, or 135 votes with a point total of 850. |
I love this kind of solutions and I believe you when you say there's a chance of one in a thousand. But is the fact it occurred to one person part of this equation? Or does it not matter? |
1000 to 1 odds apply to picking two pictures at random. In this case, these two pictures were not selected. The "random occurrence" had already happened and was just noticed by someone. This is how amazing coincidences work. Two things are noticed to be alike and then the coincidences are added up. Trillion to one coincidences happen every day. Vawendy blows her nose at the exact moment I sip my tea.
So, no, it is not part of his equation.
Message edited by author 2014-06-02 12:59:43. |
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06/02/2014 01:48:56 PM · #11 |
| do these numbers really "explain" anything? I think that this noticing of coincidences is more telling than we might think: not only does drachoo sneeze but the butterfly lifts off and I spill my coffee; the experience is essentially aesthetic. |
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06/02/2014 02:01:27 PM · #12 |
Originally posted by posthumous:
1000 to 1 odds apply to picking two pictures at random. In this case, these two pictures were not selected. The "random occurrence" had already happened and was just noticed by someone. This is how amazing coincidences work. Two things are noticed to be alike and then the coincidences are added up. Trillion to one coincidences happen every day. Vawendy blows her nose at the exact moment I sip my tea.
So, no, it is not part of his equation. |
Preeee-cisely.
Think about a similar case. If there are 100 pics entered in a challenge, there's actually a fairly good probability of two images with a tie score, something that's very unlikely between two random images. The challenge history bears that out, it happens all the time especially with today's lower vote totals.
The thing that differentiates the OP's case is that it is two of the same user's images submitted to consecutive challenges.
My calculation specifically applies to any case where we have two consecutive events out of a defined series (like the string of submissions of a particular user). But to Don's point, we can define the "series of events" any way we like...
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