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02/22/2005 09:04:45 AM · #1
Scripps Study Finds Greenhouse Gases Proximate Cause of Ocean Warming
February 21, 2005

Researchers at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego, and their colleagues have produced the first clear scientific evidence that human activity-and very little else- is warming the world's oceans.

The Scripps' report, coming from one of the world's leading ocean research institutions, may turn out to be the "smoking gun" that finally establishes the link between greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide and other pollutants) and the increase in temperature worldwide, or global warming.

The authors contend that their results clearly indicate that the oceans' warming is produced "anthropogenically," i.e. by human activities. The study, conducted by Tim Barnett and David Pierce, along with colleagues at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), used a combination of computer models and real-world "observed" data to capture signals of the penetration of greenhouse gas-influenced warming in the oceans, a Scripps bulletin stated.

The findings were reported at the annual conference of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), held in Washington D.C. Dr. Barnett, a research marine physicist in the Climate Research Division at Scripps, stated: "This is perhaps the most compelling evidence yet that global warming is happening right now and it shows that we can successfully simulate its past and likely future evolution." He admitted to being "stunned" by the results because the computer models reproduced the penetration of the warming signal in all the oceans. "The statistical significance of these results is far too strong to be merely dismissed and should wipe out much of the uncertainty about the reality of global warming," he continued.

In an interview with the BBC Barnett noted that the world's oceans cover around 71 percent of the earth's surface, and that what happens in them therefore has significant consequences on the world's weather and climate. The study used advanced computer models of climate "to calculate human-produced warming over the last 40 years in the world's oceans," said Scripps' bulletin. "In all of the ocean basins, the warming signal found in the upper 700 meters predicted by the models corresponded to the measurements obtained at sea with confidence exceeding 95 percent. The correspondence was especially strong in the upper 500 meters of the water column."

The bulletin noted that it is this "high degree of visual agreement and statistical significance that leads Barnett to conclude that the warming is the product of human influence. Efforts to explain the ocean changes through naturally occurring variations in the climate or external forces- such as solar or volcanic factors--did not come close to reproducing the observed warming."

If the observations Barnett and his colleagues have identified continue, they will "produce broad-scale changes across the atmosphere and land." Rapidly melting glaciers in South America and China could greatly reduce the amount of water available in the dry summer months. In the Western U.S. warmer conditions could fundamentally alter the snow pack upon which many Western States rely for water.

"The new ocean study, taken together with the numerous validations of the same models in the atmosphere, portends far broader changes," Barnett stated. "Other parts of the world will face similar problems to those expected--and being observed now--in the western U.S. The skill demonstrated by the climate models in handling the changing planetary heat budget suggests that these scenarios have a high enough probability of actually happening that they need to be taken seriously by decision makers."

While it may be an exaggeration to say that the world's decision makers have been "dithering" over climate change, the only concrete result so far has been the Kyoto protocol, which went into force last week (See IJ Website Feb.17), at least for the countries that have signed up to it. The United States, Brazil and China are notably absent. If the Scripps report convinces those who are still unsure about the causes of global warming that it originates from greenhouse gases, the world will owe Dr. Barnett and his colleagues a great debt.

More details concerning the report and the effects of global warming can be obtained on the Scripps' Website at: //scripps.ucsd.edu/; or on the AAAS Website at: //www.aaas.org/news/releases/2005/0217warmingwarning.shtmle. For general information, see also the United Nations Environment Program Web site at: //www.unep.org/, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at: //www.ipcc.ch/index.htm.
02/22/2005 10:29:05 AM · #2
There you go, trying to get everyone all confused with facts again.
Don't you have any faith in our political leaders?
02/22/2005 10:37:51 AM · #3
I think it's fair to say that one would have to be quite mad to assume that all the rubbish, hazardous chemicals and fumes we pump into our atmosphere, waterways and land will have no ill effects.

Pollution is bad mkay.

The sooner that Dumbya Bush recognises the fact - and shows that he does, the sooner he and America will stop bearing the brunt of worldwide resentment.

And then of course China is just starting on its journey to world (economical) domination so how long will it be before they control emissions? If the supposed most developed nation can't set a high standard what hope is there for the rest?

Message edited by author 2005-02-22 12:56:15.
02/22/2005 12:38:34 PM · #4
Originally posted by Scripps:

Scripps Study Finds Greenhouse Gases Proximate Cause of Ocean Warming
February 21, 2005

Researchers at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego, and their colleagues have produced the first clear scientific evidence that human activity-and very little else- is warming the world's oceans.

The Scripps' report, coming from one of the world's leading ocean research institutions, may turn out to be the "smoking gun" that finally establishes the link between greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide and other pollutants) and the increase in temperature worldwide, or global warming.

The authors contend that their results clearly indicate that the oceans' warming is produced "anthropogenically," i.e. by human activities. The study, conducted by Tim Barnett and David Pierce, along with colleagues at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), used a combination of computer models and real-world "observed" data to capture signals of the penetration of greenhouse gas-influenced warming in the oceans, a Scripps bulletin stated.

The findings were reported at the annual conference of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), held in Washington D.C. Dr. Barnett, a research marine physicist in the Climate Research Division at Scripps, stated: "This is perhaps the most compelling evidence yet that global warming is happening right now and it shows that we can successfully simulate its past and likely future evolution." He admitted to being "stunned" by the results because the computer models reproduced the penetration of the warming signal in all the oceans. "The statistical significance of these results is far too strong to be merely dismissed and should wipe out much of the uncertainty about the reality of global warming," he continued.

In an interview with the BBC Barnett noted that the world's oceans cover around 71 percent of the earth's surface, and that what happens in them therefore has significant consequences on the world's weather and climate. The study used advanced computer models of climate "to calculate human-produced warming over the last 40 years in the world's oceans," said Scripps' bulletin. "In all of the ocean basins, the warming signal found in the upper 700 meters predicted by the models corresponded to the measurements obtained at sea with confidence exceeding 95 percent. The correspondence was especially strong in the upper 500 meters of the water column."

The bulletin noted that it is this "high degree of visual agreement and statistical significance that leads Barnett to conclude that the warming is the product of human influence. Efforts to explain the ocean changes through naturally occurring variations in the climate or external forces- such as solar or volcanic factors--did not come close to reproducing the observed warming."

If the observations Barnett and his colleagues have identified continue, they will "produce broad-scale changes across the atmosphere and land." Rapidly melting glaciers in South America and China could greatly reduce the amount of water available in the dry summer months. In the Western U.S. warmer conditions could fundamentally alter the snow pack upon which many Western States rely for water.

"The new ocean study, taken together with the numerous validations of the same models in the atmosphere, portends far broader changes," Barnett stated. "Other parts of the world will face similar problems to those expected--and being observed now--in the western U.S. The skill demonstrated by the climate models in handling the changing planetary heat budget suggests that these scenarios have a high enough probability of actually happening that they need to be taken seriously by decision makers."

While it may be an exaggeration to say that the world's decision makers have been "dithering" over climate change, the only concrete result so far has been the Kyoto protocol, which went into force last week (See IJ Website Feb.17), at least for the countries that have signed up to it. The United States, Brazil and China are notably absent. If the Scripps report convinces those who are still unsure about the causes of global warming that it originates from greenhouse gases, the world will owe Dr. Barnett and his colleagues a great debt.

More details concerning the report and the effects of global warming can be obtained on the Scripps' Website at: //scripps.ucsd.edu/; or on the AAAS Website at: //www.aaas.org/news/releases/2005/0217warmingwarning.shtmle. For general information, see also the United Nations Environment Program Web site at: //www.unep.org/, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change at: //www.ipcc.ch/index.htm.


Lot of iffy wording in there. Are those the FACTS you were referring to Paul?

Remember, no one is disputing that global warming is occurring. The only disagreement is over the root causes.
02/22/2005 01:04:23 PM · #5
No more peeing in the ocean...
02/22/2005 01:05:31 PM · #6
I read a similar article a week or so ago - it pissed me off. The 'scientist' says the warming will soon stop the oceanic current (similr to the gulf stream i suppose) and that it will be catastrophic! He then says "and the last time that happended europe had very cold winters"

STOP! Engage brain please...so this 'catastrophic event' has happened before (no date given) and then the current restarted. Hmmm...sounds normal then, huh?

COLD winters..yep, global WARMING=COLD. Logical to an infant only.

Oceans will rise 37 feet it said. From what? There is no way that much ice sitting on land right now to raise 71% of the easths surface 37 feet. (ice floating on water will not alter the water level when melted).

I would also think that all that melted ice might lower ocean temps...

Lastly, who has been measuring ocen temps for centuries? No one. The only data we can possible have of that i 125 years old, and most likely 1/2 that old. Not enough data to predict a damned thing.
02/22/2005 01:36:00 PM · #7
It's amazing to me just how threatened people feel and resistant to changing their lifestyles and will argue about what is fact and what isn't. Burning of fossil fuels are disasterous not only for the environment, but contribute to lung disease, cancer and other maladies. And excessive logging of the rain forests also contibutes to global warming. We are borrowing from our children's future to support a lifestyle today that is excessive so that we can keep pretty lawns, gas guzzling vehicles to go to the mall with, and heat and air-condition our huge homes.
02/22/2005 01:44:17 PM · #8
Originally posted by Olyuzi:

It's amazing to me just how threatened people feel and resistant to changing their lifestyles and will argue about what is fact and what isn't. Burning of fossil fuels are disasterous not only for the environment, but contribute to lung disease, cancer and other maladies. And excessive logging of the rain forests also contibutes to global warming. We are borrowing from our children's future to support a lifestyle today that is excessive so that we can keep pretty lawns, gas guzzling vehicles to go to the mall with, and heat and air-condition our huge homes.

I for one am not threatened, nor am I resistant to changing my lifestyle.

I will, however, argue what is fact and what isn't. I guess that it's just my cross to bear.

The rest of your statement, beginning with "Burning of fossil fuels..." is pretty accurate and I agree with what you say.
02/22/2005 01:54:56 PM · #9
Originally posted by Prof_Fate:

COLD winters..yep, global WARMING=COLD. Logical to an infant only.


It might not seem logical to you but you've already mentioned the cause - the Gulf Stream has a major affect on Northern Europe's weather and if it is diverted then it's pretty generally accepted that it will have a LOCAL lowering effect on temperatures.

It's actually perfectly logical, but you have to think the thing through rather than just jumping in there with "global WARMING can't possibly have a cooling affect anywhere!"

Originally posted by Prof_Fate:

There is no way that much ice sitting on land right now to raise 71% of the easths surface 37 feet. (ice floating on water will not alter the water level when melted).


Well, there's roughly 13.72 MILLION square kilometers of ice on Antarctica. That's at an average of over 2 kilometers thick and represents over 90% of the fresh water on the planet. That's a HUGE volume of water, although I'll happily admit I haven't done the sums to check the 37 feet claim...

I'm pretty sure your floating ice claim is off too,unless liquid water is a good 10-15% denser than ice (which I don't think it is).
02/22/2005 01:55:13 PM · #10
Originally posted by louddog:

No more peeing in the ocean...


LOL

Here are a couple recent articles on the subject.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -- Global warming could stifle cleansing summer winds across parts of the northern United States over the next 50 years and worsen air pollution, U.S. researchers said on Saturday...

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The voice of science is being stifled in the Bush administration, with fewer scientists heard in policy discussions and money for research and advanced training being cut, according to panelists at a national science meeting...
02/22/2005 02:11:56 PM · #11
Originally posted by ganders:

Originally posted by Prof_Fate:

COLD winters..yep, global WARMING=COLD. Logical to an infant only.


It might not seem logical to you but you've already mentioned the cause - the Gulf Stream has a major affect on Northern Europe's weather and if it is diverted then it's pretty generally accepted that it will have a LOCAL lowering effect on temperatures.

It's actually perfectly logical, but you have to think the thing through rather than just jumping in there with "global WARMING can't possibly have a cooling affect anywhere!"

Originally posted by Prof_Fate:

There is no way that much ice sitting on land right now to raise 71% of the easths surface 37 feet. (ice floating on water will not alter the water level when melted).


Well, there's roughly 13.72 MILLION square kilometers of ice on Antarctica. That's at an average of over 2 kilometers thick and represents over 90% of the fresh water on the planet. That's a HUGE volume of water, although I'll happily admit I haven't done the sums to check the 37 feet claim...

I'm pretty sure your floating ice claim is off too,unless liquid water is a good 10-15% denser than ice (which I don't think it is).


Back in the 70s 'scientists' were predicting a coming ice age, we were in imminent danger, and, well, me thinks they were wrong. Today's 'scientists' are just as fallible.

As to the ice and water bit - fill a bowl or glass with ice cubes. add water. let melt. it won't overflow. ice expands when frozen (so it floats), so it contracts when melted...
02/22/2005 02:23:50 PM · #12
Originally posted by Prof_Fate:

As to the ice and water bit - fill a bowl or glass with ice cubes. add water. let melt. it won't overflow. ice expands when frozen (so it floats), so it contracts when melted...

And the 28 million cubic kilometers of ice on the LANDMASS of Antarctica?

The icecube thing is a little misleading too, because an icecube is full of air and icebergs are far more heavily compressed. I don't have the figures to know either way (and I don't think you do either) but it's not quite as simple as you seem to think.
02/22/2005 02:50:09 PM · #13
It depends who you get your news from, the scientists or the rushpublicans.
02/22/2005 02:51:45 PM · #14
I think that we should all do our part to help reduce the greenhouse effect by not farting. There was this guy in the lobby the other day, I swear he created a new hole in the ozone layer all by himself!

Eeewwwwwweeee!!!


02/22/2005 02:54:05 PM · #15
And Earth changes its poles every once in a while too.
02/22/2005 04:52:21 PM · #16
Originally posted by louddog:

No more peeing in the ocean...

Dang! Bad news for sure. What will all us ocean pee'ers do??
02/22/2005 04:53:10 PM · #17
Originally posted by David Ey:

And Earth changes its poles every once in a while too.


Get ready to hang on!
02/22/2005 05:05:36 PM · #18
The problem in researching Global warming is it is polictical science. Read "State of Fear". If you can't hold your attention that long, at least read the appendix.

China has now surpassed the US in consumption and does not have the pollution standards we have. They are exempt from Kyoto.
02/22/2005 05:14:18 PM · #19
I live in the Midwest. I am all for global warming. Lower heating costs in the winter. Longer growing cycles. Less stress on children and seniors in the winter. Less checmicals sprayed on the road ways.

I think its funny that everyone screams global warming, but watch your local weather. The high for today will have been set in 1918 or some time more than 20 years ago. If global warming is happening, shouldn't the high have been set last year? Or at least in this decade?
02/22/2005 05:52:47 PM · #20
Um, not that I don't think we are having a bad effect in relation to global warming, but nothing in this posted original article even mentions root causes, studies or facts.

It simply states that someone somewhere may have a smoking gun, then repeats that sentiment over and over. Nothing in this article that was originally posted indicates how or why or what factors or what studies.

Reminds me of the 'Bill Gates will pay you' email, or the 'send me your bank account number so I can deposit laundered money in it' scam. Lots of nice words and nothing to back it up. Too bad the reporter had not thought that some of the founding evidence presented in the dissertation or other articles was important.

Message edited by author 2005-02-22 17:54:38.
02/22/2005 05:58:28 PM · #21
Originally posted by bbower1956:

I live in the Midwest. I am all for global warming. Lower heating costs in the winter. Longer growing cycles. Less stress on children and seniors in the winter. Less checmicals sprayed on the road ways.


and we'll get great beachfront property when the oceans rise! woo hoo!
02/22/2005 06:06:01 PM · #22
I’ve heard it all before…
Implies, possibly, may, it looks like, all the evidence points to, if, almost 100%, we think, the finest minds in science say, Hardly evidence.
I believe that I heard that cow farts are also a cause of global warming.
And outdoor barbecues, especially if you are cooking some type of MEAT.

Next they’ll be telling us that sex is one of the causes. ;/
02/22/2005 07:05:55 PM · #23
here's my idea to fix this problem...

Do away with ALL electricity. Do away with ALL cars. Cancel all credit card agencies and banks...everyone just starts over...and the world will use food or clothing or whatever for bartering instead of currency...that's my idea...well mainly just close down Visa and Mastercard and I'll be content, at least.
02/22/2005 07:17:55 PM · #24
Originally posted by jmritz:

Next they’ll be telling us that sex is one of the causes. ;/

Sex leading to procreation is the primary cause ... we proably would be having this discussion if the world population hadn't increased from about one billion to over six billion in the past century or so.

And ... cow farts, like yours, release methane into the attmosphere; methane is a greenhouse gas, which allows visible light (sunlight) to pass through, but reflects back infra-red light (heat) and therefor performs exactly the same function as a blanket. The amount of bovine flatulence has increased markedly with the human population, especially in countries such as the USA, which rely on a high proportion of animal protein in the diet.

The excess carbon doesn't just come from cow butts though -- in order to raise a pound of cow, you also have to plant, irrigate, and harvest 10 pounds of grain and other vegetable matter to feed the cow. This requires the use of gas and deisel engines to plow the fields, run the irrigation pumps, and harvest and ship the grain.
02/22/2005 07:20:34 PM · #25
Nevermind

Message edited by author 2005-02-22 20:01:41.
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