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12/14/2005 12:19:38 PM · #1
Oh that painful and addictive little “update” button. Should I push it? No I can’t take seeing my score drop again. Wait, maybe it will go up. Should I? Should I? Just do it! Crap.

Well, that is my DPC life, but I really can’t say about yours. For me, being able to settle down my angst just a little is well worth a little number crunching. Many of us have heard “just wait until about 150 votes and then you will have your score plus or minus about 2 tenths.” You know, there is some real truth to that. Why wait that long, however.

I have been tracking my scores with the hope of being able to validate that little rule of thumb. Given that there are lots and lots of variables including but not limited to: different results for different quality of photographer and different results for photos in which you are taking a risk or running in the mainstream. So for these next challenges I will be not only tracking my scores, but my predictions as well. For a numbers geek like me this is excellent entertainment.

For those of you that would like to test my numbers on your own results during the week, here you go:

Simple Mode:
Votes---Final Score
<10-----Your score + 0.53
50------Your score + 0.33
100-----Your score + 0.22
150-----Your score + 0.18
200-----Your score + 0.16
250-----Your score + 0.15
>300----Your score + 0.12

More Refined and flexible mode:
Votes-----Final Score--------------------r2
<50-------y = 0.4418x + 3.2799----------0.5199
51-100----y = 1.0183x + 0.2364----------0.9513
101-150---y = 1.0691x - 0.1518----------0.9776
151-200---y = 1.056x - 0.1308-----------0.9890
201-250---y = 1.0803x - 0.2757----------0.9886
251-300---y = 1.1343x - 0.5837----------0.9861
>300------y = 1.1353x - 0.6278----------0.9932

Good luck and I would be interested in how these work for others. I of course will try to improve them with each new challenge.

Message edited by author 2005-12-14 12:24:26.
12/14/2005 12:26:38 PM · #2
I'm quivering with excitement!

With Love & Affection
-- The Math Guy
12/14/2005 12:48:25 PM · #3
as an employed statistician myself, I LOVE that you included the r2. That is too too funny!

Message edited by author 2005-12-14 12:56:43.
12/14/2005 01:10:23 PM · #4
I was going to include percent error too but thought that was over the top :)
12/14/2005 01:19:23 PM · #5
If I'm reading this correctly, the "short form" tells me that my image, at 78 votes and 5.4744, is predicted to finish between roghly 5.9 and 5.8? Just to see if I'm reading this correctly?

R.
12/14/2005 01:55:33 PM · #6
LOL, I gotta say, I never thought of using regression analysis to predict my score. Neat idea!
12/14/2005 01:58:57 PM · #7
Not exactly. (Please note that these are developed from my results and there is lots of varibility between photogrpahers so your results could be way different.)

The short version requires the use of the speific number of votes (within say 2 either way). So you cannot use the short version again until you hit 100 votes.

An appropriate equation can be used for any number of votes within a range. So using the equation for 51-100 votes, I predict that if you were me your final score will be 5.8110.

Does that make sense, kind of?
12/14/2005 01:59:41 PM · #8
as someone who is wading into the SPSS waters for the first time for final projects this semester, i must say only this:

i hate you all.

:P

thank you...back to writing papers.
12/17/2005 09:52:49 AM · #9
Bumping this thread cause I think it rocks. Yes, I'm a geek. :P
12/17/2005 10:08:01 AM · #10
interesting numbers ..
but i'm wondering if there is a signif. diff. of boost numbers between
Member Challenges & Open Challenges ?

i would expect there to be more drop out with open vs. member ...
12/19/2005 11:23:40 AM · #11
Some additional results are now available for me to play with and there is a distinct difference between latest results and previous results. I may be able to make a distinction between open and member challenges, but possibly this recent difference is due something else entirely. Interestingly, using the regresion equations, from 100 votes on, I was within 0.05 units of my final socre for the Holiday Catalog challenge.
12/19/2005 11:43:13 AM · #12
Ok, i'm supposed to get a 5.8507 on the 4-5am challenge. We'll see how it turns out!
12/21/2005 03:02:11 AM · #13
Originally posted by jpeters:

Ok, i'm supposed to get a 5.8507 on the 4-5am challenge. We'll see how it turns out!


Well, it turns out I got a 5.695. Apparently the voters didn't pay attention to your equation when voting on my photo.
12/21/2005 03:32:53 AM · #14
More data, more data!

One of mine was very close from 100 votes on and one was off nearly the exact same as yours. I shall recalculate with the additional data and for those interested.
12/26/2005 12:33:10 AM · #15
Out of interest for you, when I read your post I checked out my projected score, at 148 votes, the projected score by your formula was 6.2273
Eventual score for my entry, Deferred, was 6.226
12/26/2005 03:46:46 AM · #16
' . substr('//images.dpchallenge.com/images_challenge/421/thumb/268336.jpg', strrpos('//images.dpchallenge.com/images_challenge/421/thumb/268336.jpg', '/') + 1) . ' This was at 6.9xxx after 30 votes in the "Visual Puns" challenge - final score 6.476 a drop of nearly .5000 with 225 final votes.

' . substr('//images.dpchallenge.com/images_challenge/385/thumb/238240.jpg', strrpos('//images.dpchallenge.com/images_challenge/385/thumb/238240.jpg', '/') + 1) . ' This was at 6.7xxx after 120 in "Your corner of the World II" but drifted to 6.628 with 180 votes. I remember this because it is the first time I saw my score dropping like that.

But, that being said, the normal for most of my photos is to bounce up a bit at the end of the scoring, which is what your numbers would indicate.
12/26/2005 04:22:56 AM · #17
Simple Mode:
Votes---Final Score
<10-----Your score + 0.53
50------Your score + 0.33
100-----Your score + 0.22
150-----Your score + 0.18
200-----Your score + 0.16
250-----Your score + 0.15
>300----Your score + 0.12

In this formula, there is a distinct possiblity of failure when the votes are less than 150,
biggest failure would be fore less than 10 votes, the assumption that your score increases after 10 votes , could fail with high probablity.

after 150 votes the score is pretty much stablished and is seen that it increases little bit, 0.15 to 0.18 is fair judgement.
anyway good effort.
12/26/2005 04:32:36 AM · #18
Originally posted by aguapreta:

' . substr('//images.dpchallenge.com/images_challenge/421/thumb/268336.jpg', strrpos('//images.dpchallenge.com/images_challenge/421/thumb/268336.jpg', '/') + 1) . ' This was at 6.9xxx after 30 votes in the "Visual Puns" challenge - final score 6.476 a drop of nearly .5000 with 225 final votes.


I think what's happening here - and what's hard to account for in a predictive model - is the dropping of votes, at the end of the voting period, of people that didn't vote on at least 20% of images. You might notice that sometimes your final vote count is actually lower than the vote count shown right near the end of the voting phase. In my own experience, this can change scores (edit: up to) +/- ~.3.

Message edited by author 2005-12-26 04:33:49.
12/26/2005 04:44:09 AM · #19
yes, the final score shall not vary more +/- 0.3 if we are using score of >200 votes as base.

But then almost everybody understands this and we do not need a model for it. ;-)
12/26/2005 04:47:28 AM · #20
I have my own model.....take a photo, submit to DPC, get sucky score, try to learn not to repeat same mistake again.
12/26/2005 05:05:46 AM · #21
You can not make every body happy, and this is true with whatever we do in life. So i make my self happy (mostly), i only care about people who care about me (if i change my descsion).

Originally posted by ShutterPug:

I have my own model.....take a photo, submit to DPC, get sucky score, try to learn not to repeat same mistake again.
12/29/2005 05:09:00 AM · #22
Alright... some folks are DEFINITELY spending a little too much time thinking about DPC :p
04/19/2006 09:30:31 AM · #23
Giving this a little bump as it was mentioned in another thread and others might also find it interesting.

- idnic, thread resurector extrodinaire!
04/19/2006 04:38:10 PM · #24
Votes: 43
Avg Vote: 5.5581

Votes: 62
Avg Vote: 5.7903

Votes: 125
Avg Vote: 5.8640

Votes: 140
Avg Vote: 5.9071

Votes: 146
Avg Vote: 5.9110

Votes: 182
Avg Vote: 5.9505

Votes: 183
Avg Vote: 5.9563

Votes: 183
Avg Vote: 5.9617
(umm - okay, now I'm confused !! Same number of votes, but a different score ??)

Votes: 195
Avg Vote: 6.0000

Votes: 202
Avg Vote: 5.9703

Votes: 210
Avg Vote: 5.9238

Votes: 218
Avg Vote: 5.9358

Votes: 221
Avg Vote: 5.9697

Votes: 228
Avg Vote: 5.9474

Votes: 229
Avg Vote: 5.9607

Votes: 234
Avg Vote: 5.9615

Votes: 242
Avg Vote: 5.9876

Votes: 243
Avg Vote: 5.9918

Votes: 245
Avg Vote: 5.9959

Votes: 253
Avg Vote: 5.9723

Votes: 262
Avg Vote: 5.9847

Message edited by author 2006-04-23 07:08:36.
07/12/2006 12:56:00 AM · #25
Friendly bump
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